Explore key flashpoints identified in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, analyzing geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and emerging security challenges shaping these regions. A ship stranded in the growing salt flats of Lake Urmia in Iran.
In an increasingly interconnected world, geopolitical flashpoints are becoming more pronounced, particularly in regions like Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. These areas are characterized by a complex tapestry of historical grievances, economic disparities, ethnic tensions, and political instability, which can lead to sudden escalations in conflict. Understanding these flashpoints is crucial for policymakers, analysts, and citizens alike, as they can have significant implications for global security, economic stability, and humanitarian conditions.
This article explores key flashpoints in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, examining the underlying causes, the current situation, and potential future developments.
Hamed | Afp | Getty Images
Flashpoints in Africa
1. The Sahel Region
The Sahel, a semi-arid region stretching across the African continent from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, has emerged as a significant flashpoint due to escalating violence, particularly from extremist groups. Countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are grappling with the consequences of jihadist insurgencies, ethnic tensions, and intercommunal violence.
Causes of Conflict: The root causes of instability in the Sahel are multifaceted. Climate change has exacerbated resource scarcity, leading to competition over water and land, particularly among pastoralist and agricultural communities. Additionally, the proliferation of weapons from conflict in Libya has empowered local extremist groups, such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates, to launch attacks on both military and civilian targets.
Current Situation: As of 2024, the security situation in the Sahel is deteriorating. French military operations aimed at combating jihadist groups have been met with mixed results, leading to a call for increased local ownership of security operations. The region faces a humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and in need of assistance.
Future Developments: The ongoing violence in the Sahel raises concerns about a potential spillover into neighboring countries, exacerbating regional instability. International efforts to stabilize the region will need to address not only military responses but also the underlying socio-economic factors driving conflict.
2. Ethiopia and the Tigray Conflict
Ethiopia has been a focal point of tension in the Horn of Africa, primarily due to the conflict in the Tigray region. What began as a political dispute between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) escalated into a brutal civil war that has had devastating consequences for the country and the region.
Causes of Conflict: The conflict stems from deep-seated political grievances, ethnic divisions, and historical rivalries. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018 led to a power struggle with the TPLF, which had been the ruling party in Ethiopia for nearly three decades. The Tigray conflict has been exacerbated by regional rivalries, particularly with Eritrea, which has allied with the Ethiopian government.
Current Situation: As of 2024, while a peace agreement was signed in late 2022, the humanitarian situation remains dire. Access to aid is still constrained, and the conflict’s impact has extended beyond Tigray, affecting neighboring regions and leading to a broader humanitarian crisis.
Future Developments: The Ethiopian government faces the challenge of reconciling various ethnic groups and rebuilding trust with the Tigrayan people. The international community’s role in supporting peacebuilding efforts will be crucial to ensuring lasting stability in Ethiopia.
The diminishing availability of water resources across the globe should be considered one of the most pressing environmental security challenges of the century. That’s the view of one military geography and environmental security specialist, who recently published a study examining the relationship between water scarcity, geopolitics and the potential for violent conflict in a warming world.
Francis Galgano, an associate professor at the department of geography and the environment at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, said poor governance in acutely vulnerable areas — especially in transboundary river basins — and the deepening climate crisis were two major concerns.
“You’ve got this governance problem and you’ve got this growing effect of aridity and climate change. I think that is the fundamental thing that’s destabilizing our ability to [resolve water conflicts] peacefully and effectively,” Galgano told CNBC via videoconference.
“I really hope that I’m wrong,” he added. “But this is my position and certainly the data seems to bear this out.” The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) assesses the governance of over 200 countries. Francis Galgano, associate professor at the Department of Geography and the Environment at Villanova University.
The prospect of water wars is a long-running and active debate, with everyone from high-ranking U.N. officials to renowned hydro-politics experts voicing their concern about the perceived risks.
Others, however, are more skeptical. The Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI), a non-profit with expertise in water governance, has said that even amid a possible rise in social conflicts and violence, “water can be a bridge to peaceful negotiations rather than a trigger or weapon of war.”
The sustainability of water has become an increasingly urgent global challenge. It is estimated that half of the world’s population already faces severe water scarcity during at least part of the year, while data published last year by the World Resources Institute warned that a staggering $70 trillion — or 31% of global gross domestic product — could be exposed to high water stress by 2050.
Activists and members of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hold empty water pots as they shout slogans during a protest against the state government over ongoing severe water crisis, in Bengaluru on March 12, 2024.
Idrees Mohammed | Afp | Getty Images
Flashpoints in Asia
3. South China Sea Disputes
The South China Sea is one of the most contentious maritime regions in the world, with multiple countries laying claim to parts of its waters and islands. The area is rich in resources and holds strategic significance for global trade, making it a flashpoint for potential military conflict.
Causes of Conflict: Territorial disputes involve several nations, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. China’s assertive claims, marked by extensive militarization of artificial islands, have raised tensions with other claimants and the United States, which conducts freedom of navigation operations in the area.
Current Situation: As of 2024, incidents of confrontations between military forces in the region have increased, heightening fears of miscalculation leading to broader conflict. The U.S. continues to strengthen its alliances with regional partners, while China remains resolute in its territorial claims.
Future Developments: The potential for conflict remains high unless diplomatic efforts are intensified. The U.S. and its allies must navigate a delicate balance between supporting regional partners and avoiding direct military confrontation with China.
4. India-Pakistan Relations
The longstanding rivalry between India and Pakistan remains a significant flashpoint in South Asia, primarily due to the Kashmir conflict. Both nations have fought multiple wars over the region, and tensions remain high, particularly following incidents of cross-border terrorism and military skirmishes.
Causes of Conflict: The roots of the conflict date back to the partition of British India in 1947, which created religious divisions and territorial disputes. The Kashmir issue, coupled with nationalistic sentiments on both sides, fuels the ongoing rivalry.
Current Situation: As of 2024, ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) have increased, and both countries continue to build up their military capabilities. Diplomatic efforts have been sporadic, and recent developments, such as India’s revocation of Article 370, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, have further complicated relations.
Future Developments: The potential for conflict remains, particularly with rising nationalist sentiments in both countries. Regional stability hinges on the ability of both governments to engage in meaningful dialogue and address underlying grievances.
Growing competition for water in already arid areas, alongside the compounding effect of climate change, has led to a flurry of water-related headlines in recent months.
Residents of Mexico’s capital city took to the streets in January to protest an “unprecedented” weeks-long water shortage, Iranian authorities warned in June that Tehran and more than 800 towns and villages were at risk from land subsidence and Moody’s Ratings recently said severe water shortages in India could hurt its sovereign credit strength.
The severity of the global water crisis has been further underlined by an alarming rise in the number of security incidents. Data cited by Control Risks in early June found that the average number of monthly water-related security incidents increased by more than 230% between the start of 2019 and May 2024.
The global risk consultancy, which said these incidents included protests and violent unrest linked to water shortages or pollution, warned that this trend was “very unlikely” to slow in the coming months.
Egypt-Ethiopia tensions
Villanova University’s Galgano identified nine international river basins as flashpoints in which conflict is either already taking place or the potential for armed conflict is high.
These included the Nile Basin in Africa, the Tigris-Euphrates River Basins of southwestern Asia and the Helmand and Harirud Rivers along the border of Afghanistan and Iran.
Major international river basins in conflict.
Francis Galgano, associate professor at the Department of Geography and the Environment at Villanova University.
In the Nile Basin, Galgano said riparian countries — which refers to those situated along the river — have so far been unable to come to an agreement over a highly contentious dam, “and Egypt has officially let it be known that they will go to war.”
Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in a years-long dispute over the latter’s construction of a $4 billion hydroelectric dam on the Nile’s main tributary.
Egypt fears the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, will have a devastating effect on its water and irrigation supply downstream unless Ethiopia takes its needs into account. There are ongoing fears the situation could trigger a full-scale conflict.
“If [GERD] substantially curtails the water flow in Egypt, then that is certainly a flashpoint. They’ve been trying since 2011 to come up with some sort of structured agreement and they still can’t do it. I see that as a real problem,” Galgano said.
Turkey, Syria and Iraq
The Tigris-Euphrates rivers, which follow roughly parallel courses through the heart of the Middle East, were identified as another flashpoint.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “seems to be more entrenched on his sort of insular, nationalist positions on a number of things, so does he make a decision to really tie up the water? And then you’ve got Iraq and Syria really high and dry,” Galgano said.
Iraqi fishermen catch fish in the Shatt al-Arab river, formed at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, in Iraq’s southern city of Basra, on August 12, 2024.
Hussein Faleh | Afp | Getty Images
Flashpoints in the Middle East
5. Israel-Palestine Conflict
The Israel-Palestine conflict is one of the most enduring and complex geopolitical flashpoints, rooted in historical grievances, territorial disputes, and competing national narratives. The situation remains precarious, with periodic escalations in violence.
Causes of Conflict: The conflict centers around issues of land, identity, and sovereignty. Key flashpoints include the status of Jerusalem, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Recent years have seen a rise in nationalist rhetoric and violence from both sides.
Current Situation: As of 2024, tensions remain high, with periodic outbreaks of violence. The normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states has shifted the dynamics but has not resolved the core issues of the conflict. The humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, exacerbating tensions.
Future Developments: A comprehensive peace agreement seems elusive, but continued international engagement may be necessary to prevent further escalations. The role of external actors, including the U.S. and regional powers, will be pivotal in shaping future outcomes.
6. Iranian Nuclear Program
Iran’s nuclear program has been a significant flashpoint in the Middle East, with fears that its potential development of nuclear weapons could destabilize the region. The ongoing tensions between Iran and Western nations, particularly the U.S., have heightened concerns over security.
Causes of Conflict: Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology has been met with suspicion from the international community, which fears it could lead to the development of nuclear weapons. The withdrawal of the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 further escalated tensions.
Current Situation: As of 2024, negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program remain stalled, with Iran advancing its nuclear capabilities in the absence of a formal agreement. The situation is further complicated by Iran’s support for proxy groups across the region, leading to increased tensions with Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Future Developments: The potential for conflict remains high, particularly if diplomatic efforts continue to falter. A military confrontation could have devastating consequences for the region, emphasizing the need for renewed negotiations and dialogue.
“You’ve got problems in water coming into the Himalayas, with China — especially western China. I don’t think there’s anyone really there who can really challenge them militarily, but it is a flashpoint that we worry about,” he continued.
“The same with the Brahmaputra River and the Indus River in that area between India, Pakistan and Nepal. Those are all great global flashpoints.”
Amid fears over the prospect of water wars, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in March published a list of seven things countries and individuals could do to tackle to looming water shortages.
These included measures to protect and restore natural spaces, improving water efficiency, tackling water leaks, exploiting unconventional water sources such as treating and reusing wastewater and applying integrated approaches in decision-making.
Conclusion
The geopolitical landscape of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East is fraught with complexities, with numerous flashpoints that have the potential to escalate into broader conflicts. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for stakeholders seeking to promote stability and peace in these regions.
The ongoing challenges, from the Sahel’s insecurity to the South China Sea disputes, require concerted international efforts to address underlying grievances and promote dialogue. While the future may seem uncertain, proactive engagement and a commitment to diplomacy can help mitigate tensions and pave the way for a more stable global order.
As the world continues to evolve, staying informed about these flashpoints will be essential for understanding the broader implications for international security, economic stability, and humanitarian efforts. By recognizing the intricate web of factors contributing to these tensions, policymakers can better navigate the challenges ahead and work toward sustainable solutions.
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